This deal comes from a knockout match at the 2015 New Orleans NABC. Declarer held: 95 J85 AK854 AKJ. He opened 1NT and responded 2 to his partner's Stayman. His partner then jumped to 3. In "Standard" that would show 5 hearts, 4 spades and enough for at least game. Most experts use a popular convention here called "Smolen." The jump to 3/3 after 1NT-2-2 does show 5-4 game-forcing, but the jump is into the four-card suit (so that the strong hand is always declarer). So, this 3 jump showed 5 spades and 4 hearts. Opener knew of no 8-card major-suit fit, so retreated to 3NT. The Q was led and declarer saw:
Vul:None Dlr: South | J10832 KQ72 -- Q876 | |
95 J85 AK854 AKJ |
What is the plan? Setting up spades is out of the question. After winning the diamond lead and playing a spade, the defense would play more diamonds. They would likely set up 2 diamond tricks to go with the AKQ. So, you are going to need to take 9 tricks without the spades. You have 4 club tricks to go with 2 diamonds. So, you will need 3 heart tricks. Also, there is the matter of being able to take dummy's Q if the suit isn't 3-3 (you won't be able to overtake your J).
Will you need 3-3 hearts? If they are 3-3, the defender with the ace will hold up until the third round. So, you would then need an entry to the 4th heart. This means you can't unblock the AKJ first, and would need clubs 3-3. You would have to win the diamond lead, play three rounds of hearts (they win the 3rd round), win the diamond return and then play the AKJ and overtake (needing 3-3 or an unlikely 109 doubleton).
Is there anything better? Yes. The heart suit offers opportunities for 3 tricks without a 3-3 break. A doubleton heart ace is an interesting possibility. To get the best of all worlds, declarer should lead the 8 at trick 2. He puts up an honor from dummy. If East wins the ace (from A9 doubleton or A10 doubleton), declarer can later unblock the top clubs, lay down the J and lead his low heart for a finesse of dummy's 7! This works when East started with A10 or A9 doubleton of hearts (but loses to a statistically less likely A109 of hearts). Restricted-Choice fans will appreciate what I am talking about.
Anyway, back at the ranch, let's say you win the opening diamond lead and play a careful 8 to the king and it wins. Now, you should cross back to your hand in clubs and lead a low heart. Why? West might have started with a doubleton ace. In fact, this was the real deal:
Vul:None Dlr: South | J10832 KQ72 -- Q876 | |
K76 A6 QJ976 954 | AQ4 10943 1032 1032 | |
95 J85 AK854 AKJ |
Declarer wins the diamond lead and plays the 8 to dummy's king. He comes back to a high club to lead a low heart. When the ace pops up, declarer can later unblock his J. With 3 heart tricks, he then has to rely on the clubs (needing to overtake the J), but fortunately, he has 4 tricks when they split 3-3. In all, he takes 4 clubs (due to the needed 3-3 break), 3 hearts (due to the careful handling) and the AK for 9 tricks.