10 For Sure

10 For Sure

This deal comes from the 2019 U.S. Team Trials. South held:

AK653
♥ J2
♦ J82
♣ K102.

He opened 1 (these days, we routinely open such 12-counts) and partner responded 2, GF. Now what? There are 3 possible calls, none of them right or wrong (2, 2NT or 3). I prefer that 2 guarantees 6, so for me it is either 2NT or 3. Each are flawed (no heart stopper for the former and only 3 clubs for the latter). Because of the J, I think I'd select 2NT. Regardless of your choice, partner jumps to 4 and you play there with the K lead:

1092
♥ K4
♦ AQ107
♣ AJ65
AK653
♥ J2
♦ J82
♣ K102

You win (I hope) and start trumps with the ace and king, but West turns up to have started with a small singleton. Ugh. Now what?

You have one discard on the 4th diamond, but still have to negotiate either the clubs or hearts.

If you continue with the diamonds, West turns out to have started with Kx.

With 10 cards in clubs and hearts, West is a strong favorite to hold the Q. You can discard a heart on the 4th diamond and take a club finesse against West. How does that work? Let's look at what I think should be the Real Deal (honestly, I never found out the real East-West cards):

Vul:None
Dlr: South
1092
♥ K4
♦ AQ107
♣ AJ65
4
♥ Q108763
♦ K3
♣ 9843
QJ87
♥ A95
♦ 9654
♣ Q7
AK653
♥ J2
♦ J82
♣ K102

A bit unlucky, down 1. However, I wouldn't blame it on luck. Once East doesn't have all 5 missing diamonds, there is a sure thing. Declarer should finish running the diamonds (throwing a heart). Then he should exit in spades. East takes the spade winners but then has to play a heart or a club. Either way, declarer has 10 sure tricks. Try it!

Addendum: April, 2020 -- I received the email below from Al Hollander (thanks!) which shows the "Real Deal"--
I was delighted to see that indeed, the Q was with the short clubs (though the A was onside). You can also see that my deal was rotated to make South the declarer.